OECD Predicts Slowing Global Growth as Tariff Impacts Deepen

The world economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of uncertainty. However, according to the latest OECD Interim Economic Outlook, the toughest days of the global trade war may still lie ahead.

Key Takeaways from the Report

• Growth is slowing: After holding steady at 3.3% in 2024, global growth is projected to decline to 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.

• U.S. economy cooling: U.S. GDP growth is expected to fall from 1.8% in 2025 to 1.5% in 2026.

• Eurozone & China also slowing: Growth in the euro area is set to dip to 1.0% by 2026, while China is projected to ease to 4.4%.

• Inflation moderating: G20 inflation is projected to decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, providing some relief to businesses and consumers.

  
  

The OECD notes that countries managed to soften the initial blow of tariffs by stockpiling goods ahead of their implementation. However, with that buffer running out, trade restrictions and policy uncertainty are expected to weigh more heavily on investment, employment, and business confidence.

What Does This Mean for Businesses & Entrepreneurs?

For entrepreneurs, investors, and startups, these shifts highlight the importance of resilience, adaptability, and innovation. Slower growth and tighter fiscal policies can create challenges. However, they also open doors for disruptive solutions.

As traditional trade and investment patterns face pressure, entrepreneurs who can build lean, tech-enabled, and globally scalable businesses will be better positioned to thrive. This is a crucial time for innovative thinking and strategic planning.

Embracing Change

Change is a constant in the business world. Entrepreneurs must embrace it. This means being open to new ideas and approaches. It also means being willing to pivot when necessary. Those who adapt quickly will find themselves ahead of the curve.

Investors should also be ready to support these agile entrepreneurs. By backing innovative projects, they can help shape the future landscape of the economy. This collaboration can lead to exciting opportunities for growth.

OECD’s Recommendations

The OECD stresses three key actions for governments:

1. Resolve trade tensions to preserve the benefits of open markets.

2. Maintain fiscal discipline to manage public debt.

3. Pursue structural reforms to harness opportunities from new technologies like artificial intelligence.

   
   

The Role of Technology

Technology plays a vital role in navigating these uncertain times. Entrepreneurs should leverage advancements to streamline operations and enhance customer experiences. By embracing technology, businesses can become more efficient and responsive to market changes.

Investors should look for startups that prioritize tech integration. These companies are often more adaptable and better equipped to handle fluctuations in the market. The right technological tools can make a significant difference in a company's success.

Final Thought

While headlines may focus on slower growth, the bigger message is clear: opportunity exists in uncertainty. Entrepreneurs who anticipate change — and investors who back them — will play a central role in shaping the future economy.

At Pitch Fund, we believe this is exactly the moment when startups and investors need each other most. Our platform connects entrepreneurs with the right investors, helping them turn global challenges into opportunities.